Connections between classical probability and the frecuentist estimate of probability in a computer modelling environment
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35763/aiem.v1i11.172Keywords:
Probability, modelling, computer environment, simulationAbstract
We report results of a study with a group of social science students taking an introductory course in probability. The purpose was to explore the reasoning linked to the connections between the theoretical probability and experimental probability in an environment modelling. The results show that the modelling process was not a complex activity for most students when the probabilities of the
problem are known (from theoretical approach toward the frequency approach), but in the opposite direction (from frequency approach toward the theoretical approach), the variability of the results was one of the main obstacles to identify the theoretical model underlying, particularly in those students who used 1,000 or fewer runs. The students who used 5,000 or more runs developed an intuitive understanding of the law of large numbers and adjusted the frequencies to the correct theoretical model
that generated.
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